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In its original war scenarios, Frans Cronje Private Clients had argued that the conflict was intended to meet a host of objectives beyond regime change and disabling Iran’s nuclear ambitions. These included shifting the global oil fulcrum westwards, sending a message to China in the Indo-Pacific, and pressuring Iran into voluntary concessions through negotiations.

On that basis, it forecast that the fighting would tail off quickly, that global growth and financial markets would remain resilient, and that the oil price, while holding at its decade-long inflation-adjusted average, would come back to around $70 by the 4 July weekend. It says those expectations were broadly borne out, with intense fighting easing around day 10 and a ceasefire and negotiations in place by day 39, the global growth outlook remaining at near its January 2026 forecast levels, markets holding up strongly, and the oil price holding at around $100 and then coming off accordingly.

The firm argues that Washington has since become frustrated by the failure of talks and by Iran’s refusal to make meaningful concessions. As a consequence, the United States (US) has concluded that Iran’s remaining military infrastructure leaves Tehran in too strong a regional position and it has therefore returned to the use of force to knock that infrastructure back.

The firm expects another one or two weeks of attacks focused mainly on what might broadly be defined as Iranian military infrastructure. This may be followed by a pause and, should Tehran fail to offer compelling signals, another one or two weeks of attacks on selected civilian infrastructure may follow. The objective is to weaken Iran so severely that it cannot pose a serious threat to the Gulf states for several years, even should a post-November Congress restrict the Trump administration’s freedom of action.

Its central forecast is therefore for between two and four weeks of further attacks on Iranian infrastructure, followed by a declaration from Washington that the Iranian threat has been disabled through force rather than negotiation. The US would then argue that the Gulf states and other countries dependent on the Strait of Hormuz are capable of containing the remaining threat with only modest American support.

The firm expects oil prices to remain elevated during this period but not to exceed $100, which it identifies as the inflation-adjusted long-term level. It therefore expects the global economic outlook to remain close to the original forecasts for 2026, with oil returning to the $70 zone by Labor Day in America in the first week of September.

See the chart below that sets out the firm’s Brent crude projection:

On this view, the oil price chart for 2026 will show two temporary upward bumps, the first between late February and mid-June and the second between mid-July and early September.